A Microsimulation Approach for Modelling the Future Human Capital of EU28 Member Countries

In knowledge-based economies, human capital is a major determinant of labor force participation and productivity and has received growing interest from researchers and policy makers alike. Recently, the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WiC) performed macro-level projections by age, sex and education for all countries in the world. Projections of education in this model are computed based on past trends at the macro level by cohort and sex. This working paper uses data from five waves of the European Social Survey and ordered logistic regressions to estimate the impact of additional dimensions on educational attainment in EU28 countries. Variables included in the model are cohort year, sex, religion, language, immigration status and education of the mother. Cohort analysis allowed us to estimate educational trends net of individual characteristics. Analysis showed that the most important determinant of educational attainment was the education of the mother, but that other ethno-cultural factors such as religion and language spoken at home also played a role. Cohort trends net of individual characteristics varied significantly from country to country, with many countries having low or even null improvement in educational attainment for recent cohorts, most notably in Eastern Europe. The parameters derived from this analysis are used as inputs to a European microsimulation model including several dimensions beyond age, sex and education, many of which will be used to assess future immigrant integration in Europe. Preliminary results from the projections show that net and gross trends yield similar results in many countries where net trends are still dominant, but significant differences emerge in other countries in which net trends are low or null. The microsimulation model also allows for a better appreciation of dynamics in population sub-groups, for instance in rising concerns about potentially growing inequalities, notably for Muslims

Implementing dynamics of immigration integration in labor force participation projection in EU28

Many developed countries have turned to immigration in order to mitigate the consequences of population aging, particularly the expected decline in the labor force population. Yet, few projection models take in consideration explicitly the differentials in labor force participation of population sub-groups. This paper describes the labor force participation module of CEPAM-Mic, which is a microsimulation model that projects several demographic, ethnocultural and socioeconomic dimensions of the EU28 member countries population. Then, the microsimulation model is used to project EU labor force population for the period 2015-2060 under different scenarios illustrating how implementing sex- and country-specific dynamics of immigrants’ integration may affect the future labor force in terms of size, rates and gender composition. We estimated the parameters of the labor force module using logistic regressions based on the EU-Labour Force Survey (EU-LFS). In addition to age, sex and education, immigrant-related variables are also included, such as immigrant status, place of birth, age at immigration and duration of residence in the estimation of the probability of being active. Our results demonstrate the importance of taking into account differentials in labor force participation of population sub-groups when asserting the potential of immigration as a tool for managing population aging. In the European context, adding immigration differentials in labor force participation affects mainly downward the number of female immigrants in the labor force, while smaller differences are observed for male immigrants. An increase in immigration levels leads obviously to an increase in the total labor force size, but may also widen gender inequalities in labor force participation and has limited impact on the total labor force participation rate. Our findings suggest that relying on immigration as a tool to alleviate economic issues arising from population aging must imperatively be accompanied by strong and efficient measures to promote a full economic integration of immigrants

Spousal support and relationship happiness in adults with type 2 diabetes and their spouses

Objectives The purpose of this study was to examine the association between the perceptions of spousal support self-efficacy in terms of dietary self-care and relationship happiness. Methods Forty-six couples, in which only one spouse has type 2 diabetes, completed questionnaires on perceptions of spousal support self-efficacy and relationship happiness. Results Using an actor-partner interdependence model, we found that when persons with type 2 diabetes were more confident in their spouse’s ability to provide them with support regarding their dietary self-care, they reported more relationship happiness. We also found that when their spouse without diabetes was more confident in their own abilities to provide such support to their partner, they reported more relationship happiness. However, the person with diabetes’ confidence in their spouse’s support abilities and the spouse’s confidence in their own support abilities were not associated with the other partner’s relationship happiness. Conclusions This study offers a unique dyadic perspective on the determinants of happiness for couples in which one spouse has type 2 diabetes. The perceived quality of spousal support appears to be associated with relationship happiness in committed couples managing diabetes, regardless of the actual support received or provided

A framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity coming from high levels of immigration

Background Pressures to keep immigration rates at relatively high levels are likely to persist in most developed countries. At the same time, immigrant cohorts are becoming more and more diverse, leading host societies to become increasingly heterogeneous across multiple dimensions. For scholars who study demographic or socio-economic behaviours, the need to account for ethnocultural “super-diversity” brings new challenges and complications. Objective The main objective of this paper is to present a framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity in several high immigration countries. Methods We developed microsimulation models that simultaneously project several population-dimensions for Canada, the United States and countries of the European Union, with the aim of studying the consequences of alternate future population and migration trends. Results The paper presents the projected progression of three indicators of diversity for Canada, the USA and the EU28: percentage of foreign-born population, percentage of the population using a non-official language at home and percentage of non-Christians under the reference scenario. Results from alternative scenarios show the potential impact of modifying the composition of migrant cohorts. The paper also examines the projected changes in the labour force for each region by education level and language. Finally, the paper proposes a new longitudinal indicator that counts the number of years lived as active and inactive over the life course for foreign- and native-born cohorts. Contribution The microsimulation models provide much more informative results than more traditional cohort-component or multi-state models to study the future effects of ethnocultural super-diversity on high immigration countries